After 14 straight days of mostly sunny skies, dry conditions, and warm weather (remember that?), the streak came to an abrupt end yesterday. It was the longest such streak since mid-March 2006. While yesterday’s steady light rain was just a nuisance, today’s moderately heavy rain likely will dampen spirits (and the bottom of pants for that matter). The rain will last through the lunch hours, and by early evening, the last water droplets will likely come to an end.
Factoring the most likely scenario being forecasted by the computer models for the end of this week, this rain storm will just be a blip on the radar. A relatively weak high pressure blocking pattern is likely to develop to our west. As a result, we can expect the persistently sunny and dry conditions we experienced the last two weeks to occur again. However, there is not high confidence in this weather solution, at least in the opinion of this particular author. One typically expects the probability of some predicted value to be Gaussian. However, during blocking patterns, the distribution is often bimodal, i.e. either solution A or solution B will occur, but certainly nothing in between. Thus, there is significant probability that it could be the complete opposite. In any case, stay dry today and think of the sunny skies tomorrow.
Today: Thunderstorms and rain heavy at times in the morning. Highs in the mid 50s°F (13°C). Winds gusting to 25 mph.
Tonight: Rain comes to an end in the evening hours. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies. Lows in the upper 30s°F (4°C). Winds gusting to 30 mph.
Tomorrow: Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s°F (15°C).
Tomorrow Night: Mostly clear. Low around 35°F (2°C).
Thursday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s°F (16°C).
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s°F (20°C).